What Are Cognitive Biases?
Cognitive biases are systematic thinking distortions that occur when the human brain processes information. These are "shortcuts" that developed through evolution, and while they often function efficiently, they can lead to misjudgment in complex modern society.
Daniel Kahneman, who received the Nobel Prize in Economics, explains the human thinking system as divided into two. System 1 is fast, automatic, and intuitive; System 2 is slow, conscious, and logical. Many biases occur when System 1 is dominant.
Representative Cognitive Biases
Confirmation Bias
The tendency to preferentially seek information that supports existing beliefs and ignore or downplay contradictory information.
Occurrence situations:
- Avoiding news sources with different political opinions
- Referencing only convenient data for investment decisions
- Downplaying information that contradicts first impressions
Countermeasure: Intentionally seek opposing opinions. Ask "If I were wrong, what evidence would there be?"
Availability Heuristic
The tendency to make judgments based on easily recalled examples. Events frequently reported in news feel more likely to occur than they actually are.
Occurrence situations:
- Feeling airplanes are more dangerous than cars after seeing airplane accident news
- Overestimating success probability from nearby success stories
Countermeasure: Develop the habit of temporarily suspending intuitive judgments and checking statistical data.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
The tendency to choose irrational continuation due to already invested unrecoverable costs (time, money, effort).
Occurrence situations:
- Watching an uninteresting movie to the end because "the ticket was expensive"
- Continuing a project with no future because "the investment so far will be wasted"
Countermeasure: Ask yourself "Would I make the same choice if starting now?" Exclude past costs from judgment.
Anchoring Effect
The tendency for subsequent judgments to be excessively influenced by the first presented information (anchor).
Occurrence situations:
- The discounted price feels reasonable when the pre-discount price was high
- The first salary offer determines the subsequent negotiation range
Countermeasure: Be aware of others' anchors and judge by your own standards. In negotiations, present your anchor first.
Hindsight Bias
The tendency to feel "I knew it all along" after knowing the result. This makes it difficult to learn correctly from past judgments.
Occurrence situations:
- Feeling "as I expected" after stock prices fall
- Evaluating a failed project as "it could never have succeeded"
Countermeasure: For important decisions, record reasons and predictions in advance.
Approaches to Dealing with Biases
It's impossible to completely eliminate cognitive biases, but there are ways to mitigate their effects.
- Recognize their existence: Know the types of biases and understand patterns you're prone to
- Delay judgment: For important decisions, avoid snap decisions and take time for System 2 to work
- Seek opposing opinions: Create mechanisms to ask opinions from people with different perspectives
- Keep a decision diary: Record the basis and results of judgments and periodically review
- Pre-mortem analysis: Before deciding, consider "if this plan failed, why?"
Summary
Cognitive biases are deeply embedded in human thought and cannot be completely overcome. However, by recognizing their existence and consciously checking at important moments, it's possible to approach more rational judgments. The attitude of doubting your own thinking is an expression of humility and forms the foundation for continuous learning and improvement.