What Are Mental Models?
Mental models are thinking frameworks for understanding how the world works. They function as tools for simplifying complex situations and making better judgments.
Investor Charlie Munger has spoken about the importance of having multiple mental models:
"To the man with only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail"
Relying only on one specialty narrows your view. By borrowing models from different fields, you can grasp problems more three-dimensionally.
Practical Mental Models
First Principles Thinking
A method of breaking things down to fundamental elements and rebuilding from there. By repeatedly asking "why is it that way," you can find solutions not bound by existing assumptions.
Application examples:
- Question industry conventions when starting a new project
- When considering cost reduction, question the true value of each element
Second-Order Thinking
The habit of thinking "what happens then." Imagine not just primary results, but secondary and tertiary effects that result from them.
Application examples:
- Predict long-term effects of policy or system changes
- Consider ripple effects of business decisions on customers, employees, and competitors
Inversion Thinking
Think from "what to avoid" rather than "what to do." By identifying patterns of failure and avoiding them, you increase the probability of success.
Application examples:
- First identify causes of project failure
- Focus on identifying and reducing behaviors that harm health
Probabilistic Thinking
Think in probabilities rather than black and white. Estimating "70% probability of success" rather than "will definitely succeed" or "will definitely fail" improves risk management.
Methods for Daily Application
To actually utilize mental models, the following steps are effective:
- Keep records: Note which model you used when making important decisions
- Review results: Track results of decisions and verify model effectiveness
- Increase models: Read books from different fields and acquire new perspectives
- Combine: Apply multiple models simultaneously and analyze from multiple angles
What's important is not memorizing these models but practicing so you can use them in actual situations. Start by consciously applying them and gradually establish them as natural thinking patterns.
Summary
Mental models are maps for navigating the complex world. The goal is to be able to select appropriate ones according to the situation rather than being fixated on one model. By starting from small daily decisions and gradually enriching your toolkit, the quality of decision-making will certainly improve.